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Core PCE inflation: distance to 2% today: value, history and context

Data as of Oct 27, 2026

1.0 pp Poor

Data for Aug 31, 2026

Higher than on 67% of the days of the last 10 years.

Change over 1 week: 0.00 pp. Over 1 month: −0.34 pp.

Last month

DateValueColour
Oct 27, 20261.0 ppPoor
Oct 26, 20261.0 ppPoor
Oct 23, 20261.0 ppPoor
Oct 22, 20261.0 ppPoor
Oct 21, 20261.0 ppPoor
Oct 20, 20261.0 ppPoor
Oct 19, 20261.0 ppPoor
Oct 16, 20261.0 ppPoor
Oct 15, 20261.0 ppPoor
Oct 14, 20261.0 ppPoor
Oct 13, 20261.0 ppPoor
Oct 12, 20261.0 ppPoor
Oct 9, 20261.0 ppPoor
Oct 8, 20261.0 ppPoor
Oct 7, 20261.0 ppPoor
Oct 6, 20261.0 ppPoor
Oct 5, 20261.0 ppPoor
Oct 2, 20261.0 ppPoor
Oct 1, 20261.0 ppPoor
Sep 30, 20261.0 ppPoor
Sep 29, 20261.3 ppPoor
Sep 28, 20261.3 ppPoor

Over the last 10 years

What it is

The inflation measure the Fed watches, without food and energy. The closer to 2%, the better for stocks. Gap between year-on-year core PCE inflation (excluding food and energy) and the Fed 2% target, in points. Part of the theme "US inflation": How fast prices and wages rise: what decides whether the Fed raises or cuts rates.

How to read it

Higher means more risk. The colour compares today’s value with the indicator’s own last 10 years: "Good" is the most favourable third of its history, "Poor" the most strained. It describes the present and anticipates nothing.

Frequently asked questions

What is Core PCE inflation: distance to 2%?

The inflation measure the Fed watches, without food and energy. The closer to 2%, the better for stocks. Gap between year-on-year core PCE inflation (excluding food and energy) and the Fed 2% target, in points.

What does a high value mean?

The higher, the more risk or strain. The colour compares it with its last 10 years: its high and low over that period are shown above.

Does it predict the stock market?

No. It describes where things stand today against their history, with no forecasts or recommendations.

See the detail on Stock Signal Lab →

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