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What the market expects from the Fed today: value, history and context

Data as of Oct 27, 2026

80 bp Informative

Higher than on 88% of the days of the last 10 years.

Change over 1 week: −9 bp. Over 1 month: −13 bp.

Last month

DateValue
Oct 27, 202680 bp
Oct 26, 202681 bp
Oct 23, 202677 bp
Oct 22, 202693 bp
Oct 21, 202691 bp
Oct 20, 202689 bp
Oct 19, 202686 bp
Oct 16, 202689 bp
Oct 15, 202694 bp
Oct 14, 202691 bp
Oct 13, 202692 bp
Oct 12, 202687 bp
Oct 9, 202687 bp
Oct 8, 202689 bp
Oct 7, 202691 bp
Oct 6, 202696 bp
Oct 5, 202695 bp
Oct 2, 202690 bp
Oct 1, 2026100 bp
Sep 30, 2026101 bp
Sep 29, 2026104 bp
Sep 28, 202693 bp

Over the last 10 years

What it is

Negative: the market prices rate cuts. Positive: hikes. It is what prices already reflect, not a forecast; shown as context. 2-year Treasury yield minus the effective fed funds rate, in basis points. Part of the theme "Backdrop for stocks": How macro conditions bear on stock investors: whether bonds hedge, what the market expects from the Fed, appetite for growth and bank credit.

How to read it

It is context: its position against its history is shown, but it carries no colour and does not count in the traffic light.

Frequently asked questions

What is What the market expects from the Fed?

Negative: the market prices rate cuts. Positive: hikes. It is what prices already reflect, not a forecast; shown as context. 2-year Treasury yield minus the effective fed funds rate, in basis points.

Does it predict the stock market?

No. It describes where things stand today against their history, with no forecasts or recommendations.

See the detail on Stock Signal Lab →

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