Sahm rule today: value, history and context

Data as of Oct 27, 2026

0.00 pp Fair

Data for Sep 30, 2026

Higher than on 39% of the days of the last 10 years.

Change over 1 week: 0.00 pp. Over 1 month: +0.07 pp.

Last month

Date	Value	Colour
Oct 27, 2026	0.00 pp	Fair
Oct 26, 2026	0.00 pp	Fair
Oct 23, 2026	0.00 pp	Fair
Oct 22, 2026	0.00 pp	Fair
Oct 21, 2026	0.00 pp	Fair
Oct 20, 2026	0.00 pp	Fair
Oct 19, 2026	0.00 pp	Fair
Oct 16, 2026	0.00 pp	Fair
Oct 15, 2026	0.00 pp	Fair
Oct 14, 2026	0.00 pp	Fair
Oct 13, 2026	0.00 pp	Fair
Oct 12, 2026	0.00 pp	Fair
Oct 9, 2026	0.00 pp	Fair
Oct 8, 2026	0.00 pp	Fair
Oct 7, 2026	−0.07 pp	Good
Oct 6, 2026	−0.07 pp	Good
Oct 5, 2026	−0.07 pp	Good
Oct 2, 2026	−0.07 pp	Good
Oct 1, 2026	−0.07 pp	Good
Sep 30, 2026	−0.07 pp	Good
Sep 29, 2026	−0.07 pp	Good
Sep 28, 2026	−0.07 pp	Good

Over the last 10 years

High: +9.50 pp (Jul 9, 2020).
Low: −0.37 pp (Oct 8, 2021).
A year ago: +0.13 pp.

What it is

Whether unemployment is rising the way it did at the start of past recessions. Near 0 is calm; from 0.5 it has historically coincided with recessions. Rise of the 3-month average unemployment rate over its 12-month low, in pp (real-time version). Part of the theme "US economy": The economic backdrop for stocks: interest rates, jobs and activity.

How to read it

Higher means more risk. The colour compares today’s value with the indicator’s own last 10 years: "Good" is the most favourable third of its history, "Poor" the most strained. It describes the present and anticipates nothing.

Frequently asked questions

What is Sahm rule?

What does a high value mean?

The higher, the more risk or strain. The colour compares it with its last 10 years: its high and low over that period are shown above.

Does it predict the stock market?

No. It describes where things stand today against their history, with no forecasts or recommendations.

See the detail on Stock Signal Lab →