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Extra return versus bonds today: value, history and context

Data as of Oct 27, 2026

+0.8 % Poor

Data for Sep 30, 2026

Higher than on 0% of the days of the last 10 years.

Change over 1 week: 0.0 pp. Over 1 month: −0.3 pp.

Last month

DateValueColour
Oct 27, 2026+0.8 %Poor
Oct 26, 2026+0.8 %Poor
Oct 23, 2026+0.8 %Poor
Oct 22, 2026+0.8 %Poor
Oct 21, 2026+0.8 %Poor
Oct 20, 2026+0.8 %Poor
Oct 19, 2026+0.8 %Poor
Oct 16, 2026+0.8 %Poor
Oct 15, 2026+0.8 %Poor
Oct 14, 2026+0.8 %Poor
Oct 13, 2026+0.8 %Poor
Oct 12, 2026+0.8 %Poor
Oct 9, 2026+0.8 %Poor
Oct 8, 2026+0.8 %Poor
Oct 7, 2026+1.0 %Poor
Oct 6, 2026+1.1 %Poor
Oct 5, 2026+1.1 %Poor
Oct 2, 2026+1.1 %Poor
Oct 1, 2026+1.1 %Poor
Sep 30, 2026+1.1 %Poor
Sep 29, 2026+1.1 %Poor
Sep 28, 2026+1.1 %Poor

Over the last 10 years

What it is

What stocks yield from their earnings above a safe bond. Higher means stocks are more attractive versus bonds. Excess CAPE Yield: earnings yield (1/CAPE) minus the real 10-year bond yield. Part of the theme "Price of stocks": Whether US stocks are expensive or cheap relative to their earnings and to bonds.

How to read it

Higher is better. The colour compares today’s value with the indicator’s own last 10 years: "Good" is the most favourable third of its history, "Poor" the most strained. It describes the present and anticipates nothing.

Frequently asked questions

What is Extra return versus bonds?

What stocks yield from their earnings above a safe bond. Higher means stocks are more attractive versus bonds. Excess CAPE Yield: earnings yield (1/CAPE) minus the real 10-year bond yield.

What does a high value mean?

The higher, the healthier for the market. The colour compares it with its last 10 years: its high and low over that period are shown above.

Does it predict the stock market?

No. It describes where things stand today against their history, with no forecasts or recommendations.

See the detail on Stock Signal Lab →

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