Canada: the economy today (unemployment, inflation and forecasts)

Data as of Oct 27, 2026

Fair Economic situation

Indicator	Value	Date	Colour
Leading indicator	101.92	Sep 30, 2026	Good
Unemployment	6.40 %	Aug 31, 2026	Fair
Inflation: distance to 2%	1.0 pp	Aug 31, 2026	Fair
Consumer confidence	+97.06	Aug 31, 2026	Poor
Industrial production (y/y)	+1.2 %	Jul 31, 2026	Fair

Forecasts for 2026

Figure	IMF	OECD
GDP growth	1.1 %	1.2 %
Inflation	2.8 %	2.4 %
Unemployment	6.5 %	6.6 %

What each figure measures

Leading indicator: Surveys and data that tend to move before the economy does. Above 100 is better than usual.
Unemployment: Share of people looking for work who cannot find it. Lower is better.
Inflation: distance to 2%: How far price growth is from the 2% central banks aim for. Closer is better.
Consumer confidence: How households see their own situation and that of the country.
Industrial production (y/y): Whether factories produce more or less than a year ago.

What it is

The main economic figures of Canada and what the International Monetary Fund and the OECD forecast for this year.

How to read it

Each figure is compared with the country’s own history: "Good" is the most favourable third, "Poor" the most strained. Forecasts are the IMF’s and the OECD’s, not Stock Signal Lab’s.

Frequently asked questions

How is Canada’s economy doing?

Today, overall, "Fair" against its own history.

What do the IMF and the OECD forecast for Canada?

GDP growth: IMF 1.1 %, OECD 1.2 %; Inflation: IMF 2.8 %, OECD 2.4 %; Unemployment: IMF 6.5 %, OECD 6.6 %.

Does it predict the stock market?

No. It describes where things stand today against their history, with no forecasts or recommendations.

See the detail on Stock Signal Lab →